Argentina vs Croatia win Probability | Argentina vs Croatia Betting Preview

Argentina vs Croatia win Probability | Argentina vs Croatia Betting Preview



Argentina vs Croatia



Lionel Messi and Argentina look to bounce back after a surprising opening-game result at the 2018 World Cup when they take on Croatia at 2 p.m. ET on Thursday. Argentina was shocked in a 1-1 draw with Iceland, while Croatia cruised past Nigeria 2-0 to gain three points and take the lead in Group D. Now, it's Argentina that needs a victory to keep itself in position to advance to the knockout stage.



Argentina is posted at -105 for Thursday's match, meaning you'd need to wager $105 to win $100 on an outright victory. Croatia is at +310 (risk $100 to win $310), while a draw is at +235 World Cup odds. The Over-Under on total goals scored is 2.



Before you make your plays, you need to see what European football expert David Sumpter has to say.



Sumpter is an applied mathematician who wrote "Soccermatics," a book that explains how math works inside the sport. Together with other experienced analysts, Sumpter developed the powerful Soccerbot model.



The Soccerbot reads current odds and all team performance data, calculates key metrics and predicts upcoming matches. In nearly three seasons since its inception, the Soccerbot is up an incredible 1,800 percent against closing sportsbook odds.



That includes nailing the Argentina-Iceland draw, nailing the pick for a massive +385 payout. It also accurately predicted the Brazil-Switzerland draw (+360), Iran winning at +275, and Senegal upsetting Poland at +220. Those who have laid $100 on Sumpter's World Cup picks are way, way up.



Now the Soccerbot has digested the film, crunched the numbers and broken down every single player on Argentina and Croatia. The model has released a very strong money line pick, which it's sharing over at SportsLine.



The model knows Argentina could not break through against Iceland, but dominated the match overall. Messi, one of the top footballers in history, missed a penalty kick. Still, Argentina outshot Iceland 27-8 and held possession for 78 percent of the match.



Argentina is the fifth-ranked team in the world, while Croatia is 20th. The Croatians overwhelmed Nigeria, though their scores came on a penalty kick and an own goal.



While Argentina has Messi, Croatia has Real Madrid star Luka Modric manning the midfield. Croatia is filled with players from top European leagues and won't be intimidated.